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Six Charts Traders Need to Watch in the Grain Complex This Week

UUnknown

2026-02-13

11 min read

Six essential grain charts — prices, OI, export sales, basis, USDA stocks, futures curve — and the signals traders should act on this week.

Charts traders need now: cut through noise and trade with data

If you trade grains, you know the pain: conflicting headlines, volatile price swings, and a fog of indicators that never agrees. This week, the markets are reacting to late-2025 supply shocks, shifting demand patterns and the new analytics firms that surfaced in early-2026. To trade profitably you need a short, disciplined list of charts that tell you whether the market is really tightening or simply replaying a technical bounce. Below are the six charts every grain trader — commercial hedger, prop desk or active ETF investor — should watch and how to read the signals.

Quick summary — the six charts

Price action (front-month and deferred contracts): trend, range breakouts, correlation across corn/soy/wheat.
Open interest: confirm trend strength and dealer positioning.
Weekly USDA export sales: demand surprises and origin flows.
Cash basis (selected terminals/Gulf/PNW): nearby tightness vs. futures.
USDA stocks & supply estimates: surprises in quarterly stocks-to-use and planting intentions.
Futures curve: contango vs. backwardation and spread trades (calendar spreads).

Why these six? The 2026 context

Late 2025 brought spots of supply volatility — uneven South American yields and port logjams in parts of Asia — and early-2026 has shown markets that are quicker to reprice because satellite yield models and AI demand forecasts are being incorporated directly into trading algorithms. That means data releases (USDA weekly export sales, quarterly stocks) can move prices more sharply and for longer. These six charts collectively separate short-term algorithmic noise from structural changes in supply/demand, and they’re the most reliable inputs for execution, hedging, and portfolio allocation.

Chart 1 — Price action: what to watch

What it shows: front-month futures (Corn, Soybeans, Chicago and KC Wheat) with moving averages (10, 50, 200-day), ATR (average true range) and an overlay of major cross-commodity correlations.

Why it matters: Price is the market’s consensus. But the context — whether a move is a breakout, an exhaustion gap, or part of a seasonal pattern — matters for trade selection and size.

Signals to watch

Break above the 50-day MA with rising volume/ATR: likely continuation if confirmed by open interest (see Chart 2).
Failure to hold the 10-day MA after a rally: short-term exhaustion; consider trimming longs or adding hedges.
Cross-commodity breadth: if corn and soy rally together but wheat lags, the move is likely demand-driven; if one grain diverges, look for local supply/basis issues.
Seasonal windows: watch planting (spring) and harvest (fall) ranges — price moves contrary to seasonal flow require fundamental confirmation.

Actionable trade idea: On a confirmed breakout above the 50-day with rising ATR and OI, consider a directional position sized to 1–3% of account equity with an initial stop just under the breakout candle low. Use a trailing stop tied to a multiple of ATR.

Chart 2 — Open interest: confirmation and suspect signals

What it shows: total open interest for each front-month contract and the change in OI by session. Add a long/short ratio from swap dealer reports if you have access.

Why it matters: Open interest tells you whether new money is supporting a price move. In 2026, algorithmic liquidity makes amplitude bigger — but OI still tells you if the move is structural or short-covering.

Signals to watch

Rising price + rising OI = new positions, trend confirmation (bullish if price up).
Rising price + falling OI = likely short-covering rally (fade candidate or tighten stops).
Falling price + rising OI = new short positions; risk of acceleration if fundamentals support it.
Large one-day OI spikes in deferred months: index rebalances or commercial roll activity — beware false signals during roll season.

Actionable trade idea: If the front-month shows a breakout but OI is flat or decreasing, avoid large directional commitments; prefer spread trades that hedge calendar risk (see Chart 6).

Chart 3 — Weekly USDA export sales & private export notices

What it shows: USDA weekly export sales by product, buyer country (confirmed and unassigned), and private export sales disclosures.

Why it matters: Export demand drives the marginal ton in many grain markets. In late-2025, we saw episodic buying from Asia and Africa that tightened year-end balances — in 2026, watch how quickly new contracts are reported and the destinations listed (unknown destination sales often precede large buyer allocations).

Signals to watch

Consistent weekly pace above the seasonal average = structural demand tightening; prices will tend to move higher.
Spike in unknown-destination or private sales = dealers positioning; strong follow-through in subsequent weeks signals real demand.
Buyers shifting origin (e.g., more purchases from U.S. vs. Brazil or Argentina) changes basis dynamics at specific ports.

Actionable trade idea: Use large, consecutive export sale weeks to justify length; for commercial exporters, increase coverage when forward sales lag the five-year average by more than one standard deviation.

Chart 4 — Cash basis: the real-time tightness gauge

What it shows: Cash basis bids at primary delivery points (Gulf, PNW, Mississippi River elevators, Argentina/Brazil export origins). Plot the basis (cash price minus nearby futures) as a time series and percentiles.

Why it matters: Futures tell you expectations; basis tells you what’s actually happening on the ground. A strengthening basis is a direct sign of local tightness — critical for physical traders and for deciding whether to convert paper positions into actual delivery or to hedge differently.

Signals to watch

Basis firming at export terminals while futures are flat: real demand; be wary of shorts in futures.
Basis weakening internally (country elevators) but strengthening at ports: logistics bottleneck — prices may disconnect regionally.
Extreme basis swings at specific terminals (>1.5x historical volatility): immediate local supply/demand imbalance, possible arbitrage.

Actionable trade idea: If Gulf basis strengthens sharply, exporters should accelerate hedging and consider executing basis contracts rather than hedging futures only. For speculators, a basis-led rally can precede futures gains: consider long futures or call spreads while sizing for delivery risk.

Chart 5 — USDA stocks, supply estimates and the stocks-to-use ratio

What it shows: Quarterly stocks, WASDE revisions, and implied stocks-to-use ratio plots over time. Include the market’s expected vs. actual revision to show surprise level.

Why it matters: USDA reports remain the market’s focal point. In 2026, with faster model-driven forecasts, surprises still move markets when USDA adjusts harvested acres, yield, or ending stocks outside consensus.

Signals to watch

Downward revision to ending stocks > market consensus: structural bullish pressure; consider longer-term hedges or accumulation.
Stocks-to-use falling into the low percentile of the last decade: elevated price volatility and higher forward premia.
Large differences between USDA and independent satellite yield estimates: watch for revisions in subsequent reports; the market may temporarily price on independent estimates until USDA aligns.

Actionable trade idea: Position conservative option structures (e.g., bull call spreads or protected long futures) ahead of USDA if independent indicators suggest a sizable downside surprise to stocks. After an unexpected stocks drawdown, width your profit target and tighten stops because volatility often persists.

Chart 6 — Futures curve: contango, backwardation and calendar spreads

What it shows: Plot the futures curve across 12–24 months and monitor the shape and shifts over time. Also track the front-month vs. deferred spread (e.g., Dec–Mar corn) and implied carry costs.

Why it matters: The curve encodes storage economics and expectations for future tightness. A backwardated front end implies immediate scarcity; contango signals ample carry and a potential premium for delivering now vs storing. For a deep-dive into how storage economics affect pricing, see this CTO’s guide to storage costs and the implications for carry trades: A CTO’s Guide to Storage Costs.

Signals to watch

Steep backwardation in front months: bullish and supportive of spot rallies; commercial holders are less likely to push supply into the market.
Flattening or steepening contango: watch for arbitrage flows — physical players will either store or sell to capture carry.
Persistent roll yields (index buying pressure): can lift deferred prices; trade calendar spreads rather than outright futures if roll pressure is present.

Actionable trade idea: If front-month backwardation steepens, buy front-month futures or short deferred contracts (calendar spread). For risk-managers, a calendar spread reduces outright directional exposure and profits if front tightness persists.

Combining the charts: a simple decision matrix

Each chart alone tells part of the story. The edge comes from consistent cross-confirmation. Below is a pragmatic decision matrix you can run before adding or trimming risk:

Price breakout above key MA? Check Chart 1.
Is OI confirming the move? Check Chart 2.
Are weekly export sales above seasonal norm or showing unknown destination buys? Check Chart 3.
Is basis firming in relevant delivery points? Check Chart 4.
Does USDA data or independent satellite estimates support a stocks revision? Check Chart 5.
Is the futures curve supportive (backwardation) or suppressing spot upside (contango)? Check Chart 6.

If at least four of six are bullish, bias long and size up to your full tactical limit. If only 1–2 are bullish, stay flat or trade spreads and options for defined risk.

Rule of thumb: price tells you what the market is doing; the other five charts tell you why. Trade with both pieces.

Model portfolio and risk management (practical guidelines)

Below are sample allocations and hedging ideas for different trader profiles — all assume disciplined position sizing and a max drawdown rule.

Active trader / prop desk

Directional allocation: 2–5% of capital per outright futures position; 10–20% in aggregate across grains.
Use OI and export sales confirmation before increasing size.
Prefer liquid months and use stop-losses based on ATR multiples (1.5–3x).

Commercial hedger (producer or elevator)

Hedge 60–80% of expected crop forward when basis is in the top quartile vs seasonality.
When futures show backwardation, lock in forward contracts or sell futures for delivery; when in contango, selectively delay sales if storage is available.

Long-term portfolio allocator / ETF investor

Limit commodity exposure to 2–5% of total portfolio unless using commodities for inflation hedges.
Prefer ETCs/ETFs with roll efficiency and low tracking error; monitor the futures curve for roll cost.

Options strategies

Bullish but cautious: buy call spreads to limit premium outlay (defined risk) or use collars if already long physical/futures.
Volatility spike before USDA: sell premium only if you own the underlying or use iron condors with tight risk limits; implied vol can collapse after reports. For a contrarian look at volatility and behavior, see Stock Markets vs. Slots.

Signals cheat sheet — what will I watch this week?

Price: holds above 50-day with volume/ATR = follow-through likely.
Open interest: rising OI confirms trend; big OI drop suggests covering.
Export sales: two consecutive weeks > seasonal avg = demand story.
Basis: Gulf/PNW firming = export origin tightness; inland basis firming = local shortfall.
USDA surprises: any stocks revision outside ±2% of consensus gives a directional edge for 2–6 weeks.
Futures curve: tightening backwardation = play front-month; rising contango = favor deferred exposure or storage plays. For storage economics and carry implications see A CTO’s Guide to Storage Costs.

Practical monitoring setup

Set up a dashboard with the following real-time feeds:

Front and deferred futures price charts with MA and ATR overlays (update intraday).
Open interest by contract with percentage change and recent large trader flows.
USDA weekly export sales bulletin (release time alerts) and private sale notices.
Cash basis quotes at your primary delivery points (Gulf, PNW, Mississippi, local elevators).
USDA WASDE and quarterly stocks table; a model that computes stocks-to-use and percentile band.
Futures curve visualization and calendar spread P&L backtests.

Many trading platforms and dedicated agricultural market data providers now allow custom alerts and modular integrations; pair that with hybrid edge workflows for low-latency updating and the ability to surface signals quickly. For a practical tools list to get started, see this product roundup.

In 2026, use those alerts conservatively — false positives rise when algos dominate short-term flows. For architecture patterns that reduce false positives and keep models fresh, read about edge-first patterns, and consider low-latency techniques when your infra must update intraday.

Final checklist before you pull the trigger

Do at least 4 of the 6 charts agree on direction? If no, prefer hedged or defined-risk trades.
Is your position size consistent with maximum account drawdown rules? (Typically 1–3% per trade.)
Have you accounted for delivery and basis risk if taking physical exposure?
Do you have a clear exit plan: target and stop levels based on ATR and the chart signals?

Closing — trade smarter with fewer charts

In 2026 the grain complex reacts faster and sometimes more violently to data. That makes it more profitable for traders who can move beyond headlines and rely on a disciplined set of charts. Track prices, open interest, export sales, cash basis, USDA stocks, and the futures curve every week. When these six charts align, they give you a high-probability read on whether the market is fundamentally tightening or simply repricing risk. Use the actionable trade ideas and model portfolio rules above to convert chart signals into disciplined positions.

Want these charts delivered to your inbox and a weekly model adjustment for grain markets? Subscribe to our Market Data Briefing for traders — we send annotated charts, strategy notes and a model portfolio update that incorporates the six-chart decision matrix every Friday. If you publish or repurpose those notes, this guide on formatting and distribution can help you turn the briefing into a concise weekly product. For guidance on writing with AI-friendly answers, see AEO-Friendly Content Templates.

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